When cities face disasters—whether natural, man-made, or social—ordinary routines can break down swiftly. Civil unrest, acute shortages, and disrupted infrastructure can turn once-familiar streets into perilous environments. In such scenarios, employing strategies from urban SERE (Survival, Evasion, Resistance, and Escape) can mean the difference between safety and danger. One of the most critical pieces of this puzzle is identifying and avoiding high-risk areas.
Below, we delve into evidence-based methods of identifying these hot spots and offer strategies for staying as safe as possible when crises strike. Please note that while this information draws upon official guidelines and reputable sources, individual contexts vary widely. Always follow local authorities’ instructions and use your judgment to remain safe.
Understanding the Nature of “High-Risk Areas”
Flashpoints for Unrest
During civil unrest or large-scale disasters, certain parts of a city inherently carry higher risks. Government buildings, police stations, public squares, and major roads have historically been focal points for protests, riots, or large gatherings. According to the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), “Public venues that serve as community hubs can become centers of both shelter and conflict during times of crisis” (FEMA, 2004).
Critical Infrastructure and Resource Centers
Infrastructure points—such as power plants, water treatment facilities, and hospitals—can become heavily guarded or attract crowds seeking resources. Gas stations, grocery stores, and pharmacies may become targeted for looting or long queues. The American Red Cross highlights that “anywhere essential goods are dispensed can become overwhelmed, creating opportunities for criminals or heightening tension among crowds” (American Red Cross, n.d.).
High-Crime Neighborhoods
Existing crime data can also guide where risk may escalate in a crisis. Areas with already elevated rates of violent crime or theft may see greater volatility when law enforcement is stretched thin. The FBI’s Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) Program provides publicly available statistics that can help you map out higher-crime zones (FBI, 2021). While crises can rearrange the usual patterns of risk, historical data still offers a foundation for situational awareness.
Indicators That an Area Is Becoming High-Risk
Sudden Changes in Crowd Behavior
One of the first signs that a given area is destabilizing is a rapid shift in crowd demeanor. Look for large groups that appear agitated, vocal, or moving swiftly in a particular direction. The Department of Homeland Security recommends “maintaining situational awareness of crowds, especially those forming spontaneously or growing rapidly” (DHS, 2008). If you notice clusters of people wearing similar outfits or displaying shared symbols or signs, this may indicate organized groups, which could become confrontational.
Visible Property Damage or Looting
Graffiti, broken windows, overturned cars, or other widespread property damage are strong indicators of escalating unrest. If local news or social media channels are reporting looting or vandalism in a specific neighborhood, regard that as a high-risk zone. During the 2020 U.S. civil unrest events, numerous local police departments issued real-time updates via Twitter about ongoing vandalism and looting, underscoring how social media can be a valuable resource for tracking fast-changing developments.
Heavy Police or Military Presence
While law enforcement or military deployments aim to restore order, their presence can also signal escalating tension in the immediate area. Check official government channels, such as city emergency management websites or local law enforcement social media, for announcements about active mobilizations. A heavy police or National Guard presence often suggests that authorities anticipate potential threats in that location.
Road Closures and Curfews
If authorities implement road closures and curfews, it’s usually because they anticipate or have already observed violent or disruptive behavior. Pay attention to official bulletins, emergency alert apps, or local newscasts. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) encourages individuals to “adhere to curfew orders and remain informed through reputable emergency alerts” (CDC, 2018). These closures can also redirect traffic into unfamiliar neighborhoods, compounding risks.
Techniques for Identifying Risk in Real-Time
Most municipalities in the United States use integrated alert systems, such as the Wireless Emergency Alerts (WEA) system, which sends geo-targeted text messages to phones in affected areas. Alongside local news radio and television, Ready.gov recommends signing up for any local text or email alerts: “Staying informed of official instructions can help you gauge where new threats may be developing” (Ready.gov, n.d.).
Leverage Smartphone Applications
Smartphone apps like Citizen (available in many U.S. cities), PulsePoint, or local 311 apps provide near-real-time updates on incidents reported to emergency services. While crowdsourced information can sometimes be inaccurate or sensationalized, repeated reports about the same area can help verify credible threats. Always cross-check with official channels to confirm.
Social Media Channels
Platforms like Twitter, Facebook, and even Instagram often break news faster than official outlets, although the information must be vetted carefully. Look for posts by verified accounts of journalists, local organizations, or officials. Watch for live-streamed events indicating unrest, but keep your operational security (OPSEC) in mind by not disclosing your own location if you fear it could draw attention.
Personal Reconnaissance
If conditions permit, discreet personal observation or driving through peripheral routes can reveal whether an area appears calm or tense. The U.S. Department of Justice suggests that during times of increased civil unrest, you should “only engage in reconnaissance if it can be done without drawing attention to oneself and if there’s a viable escape route” (Department of Justice, n.d.). Always weigh the risks before attempting to scout in person.
Strategies for Avoiding High-Risk Areas
Plan Multiple Routes
Before moving through an urban space in crisis, identify more than one path to your destination. Use physical maps if you suspect digital map services could be disrupted. FEMA’s “Are You Ready?” guide suggests, “Knowing at least two or three alternative routes gives you flexibility in rapidly changing conditions” (FEMA, 2004).
Travel During Daylight Hours
Vision is an essential asset, and most people feel more comfortable and aware in daylight. If possible, time your travel to occur when you can see the environment clearly, and others can see you. Criminal activity often increases at night. According to a study published in the Journal of Criminal Justice, there’s typically a “marked increase in opportunistic crimes during low-visibility conditions” (Lersch & Bazley, 2018).
Blend in With the Environment
Avoid clothing that draws attention. In times of civil unrest, wearing military-style gear or carrying large backpacks may cause suspicion from both law enforcement and protesters. The Red Cross emphasizes, “Dressing in neutral colors and minimizing conspicuous behaviors can reduce the chances of being singled out” (American Red Cross, n.d.). Keep personal belongings secure and avoid flashy displays of wealth, such as jewelry or expensive gadgets.
Use Group Travel When Possible
A small group can provide a semblance of security, as multiple people can keep an eye on different directions. However, large groups might attract attention. Aim for two to four people if possible—enough to deter opportunists but not so many as to become a target themselves. Coordinate signals or simple hand gestures to maintain quiet communication in tense settings.
Maintain a Low Profile Online
In crisis conditions, social media posts revealing your current location, supplies, or travel plans can make you a target. The Department of Homeland Security’s “Active Shooter: How to Respond” guide underlines that “keeping your plans and location private is crucial to remaining undetected by those who may intend harm” (DHS, 2008). Adjust privacy settings and think twice before checking in at specific locations.
Contingency Planning if You Cannot Avoid High-Risk Areas
Develop a Personal Evacuation Strategy
In worst-case scenarios where you must pass through or remain in a high-risk area, identify immediate safe havens such as community centers, hospitals, or places of worship. While these are not guaranteed shelters, they often have at least some security presence and may provide temporary refuge.
Carry Essential Supplies
Disaster experts generally recommend having a small “go-bag” containing water, non-perishable food, flashlight, multi-tool, first aid kit, and communication devices like a phone and charging cables (or portable chargers). The Red Cross states that “being self-sufficient for at least 72 hours is critical when external aid is delayed” (American Red Cross, n.d.).
Know When to Lay Low
Sometimes the best strategy is to shelter in place. If the risk of venturing outside outweighs the benefits, find the most secure area in your building, lock or barricade doors, and stay informed via radio or phone alerts. Keep lights off if that helps you remain inconspicuous, and gather essential supplies in one accessible location.
Post-Crisis Evaluation and Long-Term Preparedness
Map Out Lessons Learned
After a crisis subsides, it’s wise to review your steps: Which routes were safe? Which zones became no-go areas? Did certain apps or sources of information prove most reliable? Documenting lessons learned can help you refine your strategies for future emergencies. The CDC recommends maintaining a journal or log of events to enhance future planning and preparedness efforts (CDC, 2018).
Community Engagement
One of the most robust defenses against unexpected crises is a strong community network. Knowing neighbors, local business owners, and community groups can provide crucial real-time intelligence and mutual assistance. FEMA suggests participating in Community Emergency Response Team (CERT) programs, which train citizens in basic disaster response skills (FEMA, 2022).
Final Thoughts
Whether you find yourself in the midst of a city-wide protest, natural disaster recovery, or widespread systemic breakdown, awareness and preparation are crucial. By understanding which factors render an area high-risk—such as crowd behaviors, critical infrastructure hotspots, and heightened law enforcement presence—you can make informed decisions about where and when to travel. Monitoring official alerts and credible social media reports, planning multiple routes, blending into your environment, and staying prepared with supplies are all time-tested strategies endorsed by agencies like FEMA, the Red Cross, and the CDC.
Ultimately, your safety in an urban crisis hinges on proactive planning and diligent execution. Identify likely flashpoints, remain situationally aware, and when in doubt, err on the side of caution. Preparedness is not paranoia; it is prudent action that can save lives, including your own.
References
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). (2004). Are You Ready? An In-depth Guide to Citizen Preparedness. https://www.fema.gov
American Red Cross. (n.d.). Disaster Preparedness Plan. https://www.redcross.org
FBI. (2021). Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) Program. https://ucr.fbi.gov
Department of Homeland Security (DHS). (2008). Active Shooter: How to Respond. https://www.dhs.gov
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). (2018). Emergency Preparedness and Response. https://www.cdc.gov
Ready.gov. (n.d.). Be Informed. https://www.ready.gov
Department of Justice. (n.d.). Guidance on Maintaining Public Safety during Protests. https://www.justice.gov
Lersch, K. M., & Bazley, T. D. (2018). Research in Action: Crime Patterns during Low-Visibility Conditions. Journal of Criminal Justice. https://www.sciencedirect.com
FEMA. (2022). Community Emergency Response Team (CERT). https://www.ready.gov/cert
Comments